Consumer Price Index
Headline, core, and the goods/services/shelter cuts behind it.
Headline vs. core inflation
12-month % change, monthlyCore goods vs. core services
12-month % change, monthlyMonthly momentum
Seasonally adjustedHeadline, MoM (SA)
Core, MoM (SA)
Inflation by category
12-month % change · same periodWhat's driving inflation
Contribution to headline YoY, percentage points ·YoY change by category ranked highest to lowest
Index composition
Relative importance,8 groups
of the CPI-U basket
Unemployment
Household survey.
Unemployment rate vs. U-6
Percent, seasonally adjustedLabor force participation
Percent, seasonally adjustedHow long people are jobless
Share of unemployed by weeks without work ·Other household-survey measures
How long it takes to find work
Mean and median weeks unemployedMultiple jobholders
Share of employed people working more than one jobLong-term unemployment
Jobless 27 weeks or longer, thousandsNonfarm Payrolls
Establishment survey.
Monthly payroll change
Change in total nonfarm employment, thousands, seasonally adjustedWhere the jobs came from
Change by industry, thousands ·Where the jobs have come from over the last 6 months
Cumulative change by industry, thousands ·Goods, services and government
Change by broad category, thousands ·How the first estimate held up
Current published change minus the figure BLS first reported, thousandsEarned income proxy
Average hourly earnings × average weekly hours, dollars per weekWeekly earnings
Year-over-year change
Has pay kept up with prices?
Weekly earnings vs. headline CPI, indexed to January 2021 = 100Pay vs. prices
Average hourly earnings vs. headline CPI, 12-month % changeLabor market tightness
JOLTS · openings per unemployed person and the quits rateOpenings per unemployed person
Quits rate
Who employs America
Share of total nonfarm payrolls ·11 sectors
of total payrolls
Private
vs. government
Announced Job Cuts
Challenger report.
Announced cuts by month
Monthly total and three-month averageWhich industries are cutting
Announced cuts by sector ·Announced hiring plans
This year against last year, by monthJob cuts by state
Announced cuts as a share of each state's total nonfarm employment
Fewer cuts
More cuts
(grey = none reported)
Last month
Trailing 3 months
Trailing 6 months
Trailing 12 months
Real GDP Growth
Quarterly output growth.
Quarterly growth
Real GDP, percent change at an annual rateWhat added to growth, what subtracted
Contribution to the quarter's growth, percentage points ·Contributions over time
Percentage points contributed each quarterPersonal Income & Saving
Monthly household income and outlays.
The saving rate
Personal saving as a share of disposable incomeFrom income to saving
Where each dollar of personal income goes ·Where income comes from
Major sources of personal income ·What households actually buy
Real consumer spending by category, 12-month change ·Spending vs. income
Real consumer spending and real disposable income, 12-month changeConsumer Sentiment
How households say they feel about the economy, and what they expect prices to do.
Consumer sentiment since 1978
Index, 1966 Q1 = 100 · monthlyNow vs. later
Current conditions and expectations, the two halves of the headline indexWhat households expect prices to do
Expected inflation next year and over the next 5 years, against actual CPI · last 15 yearsHow low is this, historically?
The current reading against reference points in the survey's history ·Personal Consumption Expenditures
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
CPI vs. PCE
12-month % changeHeadline
Core
Headline vs. core PCE
12-month % change, monthlyGoods vs. services
12-month % change, monthlyMonthly momentum
Already seasonally adjustedHeadline PCE, MoM
Core PCE, MoM
PCE by category
12-month % change · same periodWhat's driving PCE inflation
Contribution to headline YoY, percentage points ·The PCE derby
YoY by category, ranked highest to lowest ·PCE composition
Share of nominal PCE,10 groups
of nominal PCE
Producer Price Index
Prices received by producers — the pipeline that feeds consumer inflation.
Headline vs. core producer prices
Final demand, 12-month % change, monthlyProducer vs. consumer prices
Does pressure at the factory gate show up at the register? · 12-month % changeHeadline
Core
Goods vs. services
Final demand, 12-month % change, monthlyMonthly momentum
Seasonally adjusted seriesFinal demand, MoM
Core final demand, MoM
Upstream: intermediate demand
Prices of inputs to production, 12-month % change — tomorrow's final-demand pressure ·Final demand by category
12-month % change · same periodWhat's driving producer inflation
Contribution to final-demand YoY, percentage points ·The PPI derby
YoY by category, ranked highest to lowest ·Final demand composition
Relative importance,By what is sold
7 groups
of final demand
By who buys it
4 buyers
of final demand
Retail Sales
What Americans are buying, by store type and by state.
Nominal vs. real retail sales
12-month % change · real = deflated by headline CPIMonthly momentum
Month-over-month % change, seasonally adjustedTotal retail & food services, MoM
Control group, MoM
The retail derby
12-month % change by store type, ranked ·Where the growth comes from
Contribution to total 12-month growth, percentage points ·Where the dollars go
Share of retail & food services sales,13 store types
of retail sales
Retail sales by state
12-month % change in retail sales (NAICS 441–453) ·FallingRising
Fastest growing
Slowest / falling
Financial Conditions
How easy or hard it is to borrow, and how stressed markets are.
Composite financial conditions
Chicago Fed NFCI · weekly since 2007 · zero = long-run average, positive = tighter than averageWhat's inside the composite
NFCI subindexes: risk, credit, leverage · weeklyFinancial stress
St. Louis Fed (weekly) and Kansas City Fed (monthly) stress indexes · zero = normalCredit spreads
Option-adjusted spread over Treasuries, percentage points · weeklyTreasury yields and the curve
Constant-maturity yields, % · weeklyThe curve today vs. a year ago
Curve slope (spreads)
Policy rate and borrowing costs
Fed funds target (upper bound), effective rate, and the 30-year mortgage · weeklyMarkets and liquidity
Dollar, volatility, equities, and the Fed's balance sheet · weeklyBroad dollar index (2006 = 100)
VIX (implied equity volatility)
S&P 500
Fed balance sheet, $ billions
Supply Chain
Global pressure, inventories, trade flows, and the cost of moving goods.
Global supply chain pressure
NY Fed GSCPI · standard deviations from the long-run average · monthly since 1998The cost of moving goods
Producer prices for freight transportation, 12-month % change ·Freight & mail transportation PPI, 12-month % change
Diesel, $ per gallon · weekly
Inventories
Inventories-to-sales ratio by sector · months of sales on hand · seasonally adjustedTrade flows
Goods and services, balance-of-payments basis, $ billions · monthly, seasonally adjustedTrade balance, $ billions
Import and export prices, 12-month % change
Fiscal Deficit
What the federal government takes in, what it spends, and the gap between them.
For the debt side — total public debt, holders, maturity, and interest — see the companion monitor.
US Fiscal Debt Monitor ↗
US fiscal deficit as a % of GDP, by fiscal year since 1970
Receipts vs. outlays
$ billions, monthly, not seasonally adjusted · last 36 monthsMonthly deficit (−) or surplus (+), $ billions
Deficit over the trailing 12 months, $ trillions